The cancer for the coming years among males and

 The total registered cancer in Iranian military ( Employed and
retired ) during April 2007 to March 2016 was about 29057 cases. The mean age
of registered cancer was 63.36±15.20. 53.04% of total cases were female and
46.96% of cancer cases were males(table 1). The most prevalent cancer among
Iranian military during this years was breast cancer8244(28.37%), Prostate
cancer 2876(9.90%)and colon cancer 2118(7.29%) Table 2.

In the prediction of incident breast cancer the results had been
shown that an increasing trend in this cancer for the coming years(fig1). For
prediction of the trend of this cancer The autoregressive integrated moving
average (ARIMA) model with AR = 7, MA= 6, and Akaike information criterion
statistics (AIC) = 350 was used.

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In the prediction of incidence of Prostate cancer among Iranian
military, the results of time series analysis had been shown that an increasing
trend in the incidence of this cancer for the coming years (fig2). For
prediction of the trend of this cancer the autoregressive integrated moving
average (ARIMA) model with AR = 12, MA= 1, and Akaike information criterion
statistics (AIC) = 275 was used (12,2,1).

In Prediction of incidence of colon cancer among Iranian military,
the results of time series analysis had been shown that an increasing trend in
the incidence of this cancer for the coming years (fig3). For prediction of the
trend of this cancer the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model
with AR = 12, MA= 1, and Akaike information criterion statistics (AIC) = 353
was used (12,2,1).

In Prediction of incidence of colon cancer in male and female, the
results of time series analysis had been shown that an increasing trend in the
incidence of this cancer for the coming years among males and females (fig4).
But it seems the incidence of this cancer among males will be more likely than
females. For prediction of trend of this cancer among males  the autoregressive integrated moving average
(ARIMA) model with AR = 11,MA= 11, and Akaike information criterion statistics
(AIC) = 664 was used (11,2,11)  and in
females the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with AR =
11,MA= 11, and Akaike information criterion statistics (AIC) = 663 was used
(12,2,11)   .

Discussion

In this ecological study, the more prevalent cancers among Iranian
military was breast cancer, Prostate cancer, Stomach cancer and bladder cancer
respectively. The most common cancer among males was prostate cancer and among
females was breast cancer. In a population based study(2003) that was applied
in Ardabil province the most common cancer among males were stomach, esophagus,
lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, and bladder; in women, these were stomach,
esophagus, breast, colon, and rectum, and lung and bronchus(10) in other
studies (2010) was reported The five most common cancers (except skin
cancer)  in males are stomach, esophagus,
colon-rectum, bladder, and leukemia in males, and in females are breast,
esophagus, stomach, colon-rectum and cervix uteri(6). In other studies (2015)
in Kerman the most common cancer among both sex were skin, breast, bladder,
stomach, leukemia, colorectal and  lung
cancer(1) another study (2009)  had been
reported that the most prevalent cancer among males is stomach cancer and in
females is breast cancer(7). It seems over the pattern of cancers among Iranian
is changing. And with the aging of the population, we should expect increasing
prevalence of cancers such as Prostate and breast cancers in the population
such as people who work in the military.

 Many
reports in different parts of the world had been shown the increasing trend in
breast cancer in women (11-13) .this results are similar to current study
results. In current study with regard the past trend of breast cancer
registration according to that incidence, the time series analysis results
showed  The diagnosis or incidence of
breast cancer among Iranian military will have increasing trend for future
years. It’s may be due to improving cancer registration system among Iranian
military registration system although the changing in life style and increasing
the risk factors such as aging population, Decreasing parity and increasing
obesity,  changes in menstrual and
reproductive patterns among women ,use of menopausal hormone therapy and so
on  should be regard(14-17) .but also the
role of screening methods such as self-examination and  mammography should be regarded, because using
of this methods can increase the number of diagnosed new cases in early stage
of disease(18-20) and as a result  cause
of Increases the trend of number of detected cases.

the pattern of prostate cancer is different between countries (21,
22) the lowest incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer was observed in
Asian countries(23) but  the incidence
and mortality rates of  prostate cancer
is increasing in many Asian countries(24) the incidence of prostate cancer in
Iran in  is similar to other Asian
countries such as china and Kuwait but in comparing to Western countries like
the USA, Iran has lower incidence rate of prostate cancer(25) the result of
current study was shown that the trend of incidence of prostate cancer in
Iranian military has increasing trend and we have  And in the coming years, we will have more
cases of prostate cancer in Iranian mans. Increasing of prostate cancer in
Iranian military may be due to many different factors like as increasing use
of  PSA testing(26), duration of
occupational physical activity, intensity of occupational physical activity,
body mass index, marriage status, dietary meat consumption, and older age(27,
28) but also the improving of registration system in Iranian military should be
regard because with improving this system the registered cases will increase
and finally the number of  new cancer
cases will be remarkable.

The results of the research were shown that the incidence of colon
cancer in Asian countries is increasing (29)according to different reports the
incidence of colorectal cancer in Iranian population is increasing (30-33).this
result is close to the current study. According to time series analysis in
prediction of colon cancer among Iranian military the incidence of diagnosed
cases of colon cancer among this group has an increasing trend. Some part of increasing
this trend may be due to applying for some screening program like as fecal
occult blood tests (FOBT), flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) and total
colonoscopy(34),. Other cause of an increase in the incidence of colon cancer
among Iranian population such as people who working military service may be
related to factors such as behavioral and lifestyle changes, toward
urbanization High consumption of total energy and animal fat, lower dietary
fiber and other factors(35). Also According to our prediction results, the
number of incident colon cancer in coming years in man will be higher than
women. This result is similar to other study results(36, 37) this difference
between two genders may be related to different factors such as environmental
factors and lifestyle such as food consumption pattern, smoking, and physical
activity also using more animal meat in men (38, 39) and the other influential
factors that differ between the two gender and is risk factor for colon cancer

Conclusion

The more common cancer in Iranian military (employed and retired)
is Breast, Prostate and Colon cancer respectively. And the trend of this cancer
in Iranian military is increasing. So for prevention of this problem should be
serious programming for decreasing the important risk factors in this
population and other groups.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the authorities as well as the
personnel of Iranian armed force of insurance organization who helped in this
study.